The electoral debate in Andalusia reactivates parties that have worse prospects

The Andalusian campaign had its hangover day on Tuesday after the debate at six on RTVE. In Andalusia it had a 17.6% share of the screen (457,000 viewers), almost three points more than in 2018, and 9.3% in the national group (1,179,000 people). Did it work? And whom? Neither question has an answer yet. The Andalusian political scientists Ana Salazar and Manuel Rodríguez believe that it was useful for people to find out that the 109 seats of the autonomous Parliament will be renewed on June 19 and, above all, to mobilize the troops of the parties, the faithful , to the manque loses Juan Manuel Moreno (PP), Juan Espadas (PSOE), Juan Marín (Citizens), Inma Nieto (For Andalusia), Macarena Olona (Vox) and Teresa Rodríguez (Adelante Andalucía).

“This electoral period is very silly, there is no atmosphere or electoral tension,” says Salazar, director of Idus3 Strategy. “Mobilizing your own has a snowball effect, because it brings out the militancy corpse with the citizens”, he maintains. However, he doubts that the debate alone will mobilize the 40% of abstentionists predicted by the polls.

In the PSOE they were happy with the intervention of Espadas, whose electoral leadership generates uncertainties in their ranks. In reality, all the parties expressed the same feeling of having passed the test with flying colours. But in some areas of the PP a point of doubt was generated, that anger so characteristic of electoral campaigns that is summed up with the formula what if…? Behind that expression there is someone with memory, someone who lived the night of March 25, 2012, when the polls that gave Javier Arenas the absolute majority collapsed resoundingly and the Socialists, despite losing, continued for a few more years in the Government of the Junta de Andalucía until the end of December 2, 2018. Those polls also fell off the cliff with no less fuss.

“Moreno was not well, but the debate did not go badly,” says a person who appears on the electoral lists of the PP. “There were many silences, he did not want to enter the discussion. No matter how well we are doing, we must not lose sight of the fact that Arenas did not attend the 2012 electoral debate on Canal Sur when he believed that he had won everything, ”says this source that he would have preferred a Moreno more Juanma than president. In the RTVE debate, moderated by journalists Xabier Fortes and Paloma Jara, all the candidates from the left-wing bloc and the far-right candidate agreed to try to erode the Andalusian president and PP candidate for re-election. He turned in profile.

“Andalusia is not a land of confrontation”

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There is no doubt in the engine room of the PP campaign that its leader was right. “There were six candidates, not four, like the previous time. And there is only one president. It is about conveying that Andalusia is not a land of confrontation, ”says Moreno’s team. The president of the Board had an unexpected and surprising help: that of his vice president and candidate of Ciudadanos, Juan Marín. From the PP they specifically requested it. “The Government has gone hand in hand in the debate. Everything was agreed. He is the Government and he has to sell management, ”say the sources consulted. Marín got down to it and was, along with Teresa Rodríguez, the one who with the greatest determination stood up to Olona, ​​while Moreno avoided the melee. From the first minute, in the PP they were clear that there was no need to pay “neither case” to the provocations.

The political scientist Manuel Rodríguez of the political consultancy Cámara Cívica acknowledges that he was surprised by Marín’s intervention. “He defended that the coalition government has worked and can capitalize on it” on June 19, he says. Marin’s main concern was to end up ignored by the rest of the applicants. The return that comes to him from his capitidiminished formation “and from the street” – if he does not get seats it will almost certainly mean the end of the liberal party – has been like a vitamin injection.

The same thing happens to the PSOE, where it believes that the “left bloc” was “well above that of the right.” From the Swords team they assure that Moreno “was there, but he wasn’t” and they trust that the “non-aggression” between PSOE and the coalitions led by Inma Nieto and Teresa Rodríguez will help to get the left-wing electorate out of the drowsiness.

This analysis is assumed in part by Por Andalucía, the coalition that brings together six formations, including IU, Podemos and Más País. The main objective of this coalition was not only to make her candidate known (according to the CIS, only 4.8% do so), but also to try to identify her with the project piloted by the second vice president, Yolanda Díaz. This has gone from disregarding the Andalusian coalition in its early stages to deciding the candidacy of the effective parliamentary spokesperson for IU instead of that of the candidate proposed by Podemos. Día already has three rallies scheduled in Andalusia, one of them with the leader of Más País, Íñigo Errejón, the first after his break with the party he founded together with Pablo Iglesias, next Sunday in Malaga, in which the highest leaders of Podemos, Ione Belarra and Irene Montero. In Por Andalucía they have no doubts that they will get more deputies than those of their former ally Teresa Rodríguez, but they are not unaware that it is the first time that there is a competitor on their left.

Next Monday the last six-person debate is held on the set of Canal Sur, the public channel that Vox wants to close. Except for PP and Cs, all the parties believe that it will mean a new distribution of cards and it will be different, once the initial vertigo has passed. From the PP they already warn that Moreno will maintain the same institutional profile —”we will sell our book”—, although they do not rule out another tonality in the rallies.

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