When the Andalusian president and PP candidate for re-election, Juan Manuel Moreno, dissolved the Andalusian Parliament in April, after fiddling with a huge margarita for a few days, and set the elections for June 19, he knew two things perfectly: that In Andalusia, summer starts when it feels like it and there is a beach here. Exactly 263 beaches. What he did not know is that there would be a heat wave with a maximum of 43º. That’s where the parties are now when there are only six days left for the campaign and eight for the polls to open: How do I catch and refresh the voters? How do I motivate the voters to choose my ballot? They are the feared abstentionists, around 40% of the 6.6 million voters, according to polls. It is to them that all messages are addressed in these final days.
Abstainers and undecided are not exactly the same. The former are often disenchanted party voters whom the party is trying to win back; the latter decide on their ballot when it is best for them, generally shortly before going to vote. Moreno gave this Saturday from Alhaurín El Grande (Málaga), the municipality where his parents were born, the precise fact that there are “200,000 undecided”.
“I ask the undecided to lend us their trust, that they will not regret it, that we are not here for experiments,” he said. The PP has followed that course throughout the Andalusian campaign: claiming a sufficient majority so as not to have to agree with Vox. Unless the PSOE or another rival has the ingenuity to remove the favorite from the polls of that trantran, and forces him to improvise, Moreno is not going to remove the institutional position or stop presenting himself as a safe value. He did not do it in the electoral debate for six on RTVE and he will not do it, they advance in his team, in this Monday’s on Canal Sur. We’ll see if he really doesn’t use the replicas that he has in his folder.
In the PP there is “fear” that its potential voters will relax. And one fact scales them: that of the people who have requested the vote by mail. A total of 176,598, 98% more than in the December 2018 elections. “That means that many people are going to go to the beach, but there are many more who will go and have not requested it,” they interpret from the P.P. This party will be able to launch a specific campaign to activate participation, it will tell voters that there are many umbrella and towel days, but only one to vote. The average abstention in Andalusian elections that do not coincide with the general ones is 38.8%
As the president of the PP, Alberto Núñez Feijóo, said this Saturday in Córdoba, the PP seeks the transversal vote, which has been being with one hand in the sky and the other on the ground. “We are dominating the field, but we haven’t scored any goals. We don’t have a single vote at the polls”, he pointed out, while urging to make it clear who he was addressing: “Those who always vote for us, those who voted for us and will return home and those who have almost never voted for us ” .
In the afternoon, Feijóo traveled to the province of Málaga, where the President of the Government and leader of the PSOE, Pedro Sánchez, had previously been with the Socialist candidate for the Junta, Juan Espadas. No one can reproach Sánchez for a lukewarm, reserved campaign, so as not to be harmed if there are bad results. Whether he turns out good or bad, he wants to share them. This is his fifth consecutive weekend in Andalusia since the elections were called. Swords was the bet that he accepted to relieve Susana Díaz, although the decision to change was made so late that now the socialist candidate is trying to do a double job in a hurry: oversee the government’s management and have a new known reference.
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For the first time in the campaign, the PSOE showed some militant muscle and gathered some 3,500 people, according to the organizers, under tents in the Malaga town of Cártama. Sánchez vindicated the socialist management during the almost 37 years that he remained on the Board. “The PSOE has done the best, others did nothing, neither in the opposition nor in the Board, we have to get back on track,” he said. The Socialists also address the abstentionists, their own, the 400,000 who did not vote for them in 2018 and four months later did vote for Sánchez in the general elections. The PP predicts that these voters will not return, while Espadas assures the opposite and trusts in an intangible such as the fact that five people have stopped him to greet him on a 100-meter walk on a Granada street 48 hours ago. The Andalusian PSOE says that it does not have its own survey data, no tracking diary that varies your mood, neither for better nor for worse, which is quite new and unusual.
Sánchez was not alone defending the management of the central government. The second vice president, Yolanda Díaz, of United We Can, made her debut from Córdoba in the campaign in support of the candidate for Por Andalucía, Inmaculada Nieto, who in a few days has gone from being an opening act to starring in the rallies. Like the PSOE candidate, he cries out for not taking anything for granted: “All the 2018 polls gave Susana Díaz the winner and now she is a commentator on the Risto Mejide program: these elections can be won if those of us who are more are going to vote “, it states.
Santiago Abascal, leader of Vox, completed the payroll for the national landing in Andalusia this weekend. He does not leave his candidate, Macarena Olona, alone at any rally. It is not known if for good, for bad or just in case.
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