The left has seven days left and a debate to try to make the wind play a role in the Andalusian electoral race. So far this campaign has hardly moved anything in the preferences of the electorate, according to the second wave of the 40dB survey. for EL PAÍS and Cadena SER on next Sunday’s elections. The PP maintains a solid advantage, which would allow it to add more seats than the entire left together, and the leadership of its candidate, the current president, Juan Manuel Moreno, is reinforced compared to the previous poll three weeks ago. The left does not take off, while Vox hardly notices the push of its competitor on the right and even shows an upward tilt. All the internal data of the demoscopic work can be consulted on the EL PAÍS and SER websites.
The clearest effect of the campaign that reflects the survey of 40dB. is the increase in mobilization. Up to 63% say they will vote, which would mean six points more than in the previous 2018 elections, when participation bottomed out. This increase in mobilization is greater among the left-wing electorate —13 points more than in May for the Por Andalucía coalition and six and a half for the PSOE—, without this translating into any substantial change in the correlation of forces. The survey was carried out in the first six days of the campaign, so it collected the effects of the debate between the candidates on TVE, whose second round will be this Monday on Canal Sur.
The distribution of seats calculated by 40dB. has not changed from the result three weeks ago: 48 for the PP (22 more than it now has and 7 of the absolute majority), 33 for the PSOE (the same as it has), 18 for Vox (6 more), 7 for For Andalusia and 3 for Adelante Andalucía (these last two had added 17 four years ago, when they appeared together). Ciudadanos has experienced a certain improvement with the start of the campaign —advances eight tenths—, which at the moment does not serve to keep any of its 21 seats in the outgoing Parliament.
The electoral struggle has not worn the PP down at all, rather the other way around. It has won two tenths since May (it stands at 36.7%, 11 points more than the PSOE) and its presidential campaign seems to be having an effect, because Moreno continues to gain acceptance: he is preferred by 38.4% of the electorate, almost two points more than in May. The PP is presented as the formation that retains the most voters, it takes 45% of those of Ciudadanos, recovers 16% of those of Vox and manages to snatch the PSOE about 11%. In the sympathies for parties of the Andalusian electorate, popular and socialists continue in a technical tie, although, unlike in May, now with a narrow advantage of the former.
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The left does not stop repeating that only a great mobilization will be able to stop the right. The detected so far by 40dB. insufficient to reverse the forces. The survey reveals a significant increase in the knowledge of the candidates who started from the worst figures at that point, the socialist Juan Espadas and the leader of Por Andalucía, Inmaculada Nieto. Those who say they will vote for this last formation are the ones who with more certainty also assure that they will go to the polls, 85%, ahead of the right-wing parties. And, despite everything, the left not only does not improve its results, but also shows a certain drop compared to May, especially precisely Por Andalucía
The PSOE has not improved in the last three weeks either. It leaves two tenths and would not even match the result of 2018, even if it could maintain its 33 seats. The loyalty of its voters is very low (60%), without reaching the catastrophe of Citizens: the candidacy headed by the Vice President of the Board, Juan Marín, retains less than one in five voters from four years ago. There is a higher percentage of undecided among those who supported the liberal formation in 2018 (12%), as well as the PSOE (almost 10%) and Adelante Andalucía (8.2%, now split in two), than in those who then they cast their ballot for PP and Vox (around 4% in both cases).
The extreme right has gained half a point since May and its candidate, Macarena Olona, has slightly improved acceptance, despite her controversial campaign. The survey reveals a significant penetration of Vox in the social sectors that say they experience more economic difficulties. It is, for example, the first force in direct voting intention among those who confess that they have had to go into debt.
For the left of the left, the news is worse. For Andalusia, the confluence of IU, Podemos and Más País, goes back nine tenths in three weeks, and Adelante Andalucía, the regionalist formation of Teresa Rodríguez, another seven. The electorate of 2018, when they concurred together, is divided between Por Andalucía (44%), Adelante Andalucía (28%) and PSOE (8%).
Juan Manuel Moreno insists on his willingness not to agree with Vox, a possibility that does not raise unanimity among his electorate, although there is a very clear inclination. More than half (54%) would support an agreement with the extreme right, compared to a quarter (26%) who would prefer an understanding with the PSOE. In the case of Vox voters, support for an entente of the entire right is practically total: 94%.
In Andalusians as a whole, the group of those who would like a left-wing government (30.6%) exceeds that of those who are committed to the PP-Vox pact (27.6%). A hypothetical agreement between the PP and PSOE would only have the support of 16.7% of the socialist electorate, 76% of whom opt for the left-wing coalition, a percentage that rises to around 90% among the voters of Inmaculada Nieto and Teresa Rodríguez. .
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