In these upcoming elections to the Parliament of Andalusia, everything indicates that the Popular Party will win and, furthermore, that it will do so with some ease. The only time the PP beat the PSOE was in 2012, by a very narrow margin of just over one point. Both in 2015 and 2018, let’s remember, the PSOE won. According to the 40dB survey. For EL PAÍS and Cadena SER, the PP will have to count on Vox to form a government (even if it is in the form of abstention), but it would remain a relatively small distance (between six and nine seats) from the absolute majority.
Why is the PP growing so much in Andalusia? The first reason has to do with the possible disappearance of Ciudadanos from the parliamentary arch (the survey gives it between zero and two seats): almost half of its voters will go to the PP. This reconfiguration of the party system, which is not only taking place in Andalusia, benefits the Popular Party more than any other political force. But there are more reasons that account for the growth of the PP.
Andalusia, like Spain, is currently facing a complex economic scenario. Inflation, unemployment and the economy itself have become the issues that most concern citizens, far removed from social inequalities and poverty, despite the fact that at the moment there are more Andalusians with difficulties in meeting their expenses than in a situation of relief (6 out of 10 make it to the end of the month, withdraw savings or contract debts).
Faced with this context of economic uncertainty, many people cling to the party in government, which enjoys a reasonably good evaluation and has a candidate with considerably more approval than any other. It is, therefore, a vote for management: it expresses confidence in Juan Manuel Moreno’s ability to govern, rather than ideological closeness to his party (Andalusians continue to lean slightly to the left and, in addition, the PP and the PSOE they practically tie in partisan sympathy despite not doing so in direct voting intention). In this same sense, it should be noted that the president of the Board is the favorite not only in the center of the ideological scale, a position in which the PP triples the vote for the PSOE, but above all among the voters of the more moderate left ( position 4 on a scale of 0 to 10).
In a context of rising prices, the economy of households influences the vote: support for the PP decreases as the economic situation of those interviewed worsens, although it is the party with the most votes both among the wealthy and among those who arrive just end of the month and those who pull savings. However, among those who have to incur debts to face their day to day (almost 7%), it is Vox that comes out better, prevailing over the PP. Could it be a turning point in the vote for Vox, in the sense that the far-right party begins to gain support among the most vulnerable population? And why don’t the left get more support in these homes?
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In the coming weeks, once the comfortable victory of the popular in a traditionally socialist community is confirmed, it will be necessary to carefully analyze how citizens, beyond the Andalusian territory, face these times of inflation. It is not yet clear whether the social majority will choose to seek the protection of the parties in power or rather decide to punish them.
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