The parties of the Andalusian left have tacitly agreed to proclaim that if the PP adds more than all of them together, they will not allow the investiture of the popular Juan Manuel Moreno to abstain and thus isolate Vox. “Absolutely not,” answered yesterday in La Sexta the candidate of the coalition Por Andalucía, Inma Nieto, who in an interview with EL PAÍS was willing to open a “reflection” on that matter if such a circumstance arose. The socialist Juan Espadas is also in the position of not providing support to block the extreme right, as is Teresa Rodríguez, the leader of Adelante Andalucía.
The debate on what position the parties are going to adopt around Vox, to which the polls predict a moderate rise compared to the 12 seats it obtained in 2018, continues to be the basic axis on which the Andalusian campaign that ends this Friday pivots . The stakes have gone from one game to another. The socialists and the confluences of the left base their strategies on warning of the danger of the entry of Vox into the Andalusian Government to mobilize their voters.
Vox has made it clear that, even if Moreno only needs one vote or one abstention, he will require the PP candidate to enter the Andalusian Executive. The national president of the popular party, Alberto Núñez Feijóo, tried to transfer this ordeal to the socialists: “If the PSOE is bothered by Vox so much, let him prove it.” Swords has said that he does not accept that possibility; Nieto, after signing up for the “reflection”, has said no; and Teresa Rodríguez has also said no to the cordon sanitaire. And all this, without the 6.6 million Andalusians with the right to vote having yet decided which Parliament they want and how they want it. Nuria López, the general secretary of the Andalusian Workers’ Commissions, aims to “give it a thought”, but after the Andalusians go to the polls. The majority union in Andalusia asks for the vote for the progressive options.
Three days before the opening of the polls, it is unknown whether or not Moreno’s PP will need the votes of the extreme right to consolidate a political cycle that began in 2018, when the conservative forces added more than the progressives and ended a period of almost 37 years followed by socialist governments. The objective of the PP continues to be to add more than all the left-wing candidacies and from there play with variable geometry if the rest lend themselves.
Moreno has not clarified at any time what he will do if he needs Vox, although this Thursday he verbalized for the first time on Onda Cero a scenario that he has been avoiding throughout the campaign: “Pedro Sánchez needs for the generals that there is a government with Vox in Andalusia. In no case is he going to allow us not to need him, in the event that he enters Vox ”.
The rest of the parties, including Cs, his coalition partner, have no doubts that he will ally himself with Olona, but the PP candidate is currently rushing the last hours and aspires to an absolute majority (55 of 109 seats). The PP assured at the beginning of the campaign that things were going “too well” and about to end they maintain the same impression, although they are concerned with abstention in the heat of the heat wave because people prefer to go to the beach first and then to the polling station, in full jam.
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The Andalusian president said this Thursday in Chiclana (Cádiz): “I dream of a large majority in coalition with the Andalusians”, while warning of the risk of “two governments in one and with an internal drill” like the one that, he maintains, presides over Pedro Sanchez. In this act two faces of Moreno were seen: the one who was sure that that sufficient majority “is close” because he sees it on the street; and the Moreno who scolded himself for saying it and believing some polls that “sometimes fail more than a cane shotgun.” “We cannot trust each other. I myself get infected, I come up and then I go down, ”he riveted. Even the popular candidate was surprised to ask for a large majority when in other campaigns they were limited to claiming an opportunity. “What things!” he added. Everything is a product of the vertigo caused by being on the verge of achieving “a historic moment” or a disappointing result, even if it rises quite a bit from the meager 26 current deputies.
Another surprise for the PP is the campaign of its main rival. In the machine room of the popular they have been waiting many days for the PSOE of Andalusia to do something, understanding by “something” a shaking, a surprise, a juggling that takes Moreno out of his comfortable photographic electoral safari (yesterday he participated in a loose of owls and kestrels) and polarize the campaign. They already know that they wait in vain. “We can’t do anything else,” they confess from the team of the socialist candidate, Juan Espadas, who has traveled nearly 5,000 kilometers since June 1. He moves, but the socialist voter does not follow him along the way. Sociologist Manuel Pérez Yruela says it with data from the study by the Center for Sociological Research: 58.7% of PP voters follow the campaign with interest, 16.4 points more than those of the PSOE.
The PSOE has proposed in the final stretch to achieve what is unattainable for most polls: to be the most voted force and, if not, to add with Por Andalucía and Teresa Rodríguez’s party more votes and seats for the progressive bloc . Sociologists don’t like the word impossible, because they work with data and know that the lottery is winning, although they don’t know who: “The indicators point in one direction. There is nothing impossible, but there is a very low probability”, affirms Pérez Yruela.
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